From Artificial Intelligence to Superintelligenc

i would like to introduce you to my present and the rest of the world’s future i call it stem some people think that some of these things are sort of science fictiony far out there crazy but i like to say okay let’s look at the modern human condition if we think about it we are actually recently arrived guests on this planet think about if the world like was created earth was created one year ago the human species then would be 10 minutes old the industrial era started two seconds ago there have already been 250 000 generations since our last common ancestor and

 

we know that complicated mechanisms take a long time to evolve so a bunch of relatively minor changes take us from broken off three branches to intercontinental ballistic missiles so this then seems pretty obvious that everything we’ve achieved pretty much and everything we care about depends crucially on some relatively minor changes that made the human mind and the corollary of course is that any further changes that could significantly change the substrate of thinking could have potentially enormous consequences some of my colleagues think we are on the verge of something that could cause a profound change in that substrate and that is machine superintelligence [Music] artificial intelligence is a rapidly growing field of technology with the potential to make huge improvements in human well-being however the development of machines with intelligence vastly superior to humans will pose special perhaps even unique risks the united states have identified artificial intelligence as one of the key technologies that will ensure the united states will be able to fight and win the wars of the future potential international rivals in the field of ai are also creating pressure for the united states to compete for innovative military ai applications china is a leading competitor in this regard in 2017 the chinese government released a strategy detailing its plan to take the lead in ai by 2030 less than two months later vladimir putin publicly announced russia’s intent to pursue ai technologies stating whoever becomes the leader in this field will rule the world most surveyed ai researchers expect machines to eventually be able to rival human intelligence though there is little consensus on how this will likely happen artificial intelligence used to be about putting commands in a box you would have human programmers that would painstakingly hand craft knowledge items since then a paradigm shift has taken place in the field of artificial intelligence today the action is really around machine learning so rather than hand crafting knowledge representations and features we create algorithms that learn often from raw perceptual data basically the same thing that the human infant does the result is ai that is not limited to one domain now of course

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ai is still nowhere near having the same powerful cross-domain ability to learn and plan as a human being has cortex still has some algorithmic tricks that we don’t yet know how to match in machines whichever government or company succeed in inventing the first artificial super intelligence will obtain a potentially world dominating technology via super intelligence we mean an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field including scientific creativity general wisdom and social skills there’s this illusion that time horizon matters if you feel that this is 50 or 100 years away that is totally consoling but there’s an implicit assumption there the assumption is that you know how long it will take to build this safely and that 50 or 100 years is enough time sam harris is a neuroscientist philosopher and new york times best-selling author he explains that one only needs to accept three basic assumptions to recognize the inevitability of super-intelligent ai intelligence is a product of information processing in physical systems we will continue to improve our intelligent machines we do not stand on the peak of intelligence or anywhere near it the problem with the race for ai is that it may result in poor quality asi that does not take the welfare of humanity into consideration sam harris worries that the power of superintelligent ai will be abused if governments and companies perceive themselves to be in an arms race against one another they could develop strong incentives to create super-intelligent ai first or attack whoever is on the brink of creating it the chinese russians indians israelis koreans japanese and europeans are at least as motivated as americans to develop advanced ai currently china is primarily focused on using ai to make faster and more well-informed decisions as well as on developing a variety of autonomous military vehicles russia is also active in military ai development with a primary focus on robotics an arms race for an asi could lead to authoritarianism it can make it easier for political groups to shut down negative speech against them it can make it easier for businesses to assert their rights over interests of workers consumers in the general public philosopher nick bostrom expressed concern about what values superintelligence should be designed to have a biological neuron fires maybe at 200 hertz 200 times a second but even a present-day transistor operates at the gigahertz neurons propagate slowly in axons 100 meters per second tops but in computers signals can travel at the speed of light there are also size limitations like a human brain has fits inside a cranium but a computer can be the size of a warehouse or

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larger so the potential for super intelligence kind of lies dormant in matter much like the power of the atom like dormant throughout human history patiently waiting there until 1945. in this century scientists may learn to awaken the power of artificial intelligence and i think we might then see an intelligence explosion [Music] any type of ai superintelligence could proceed rapidly to its programmed goals with little or no distribution of power to others it may not take its designers into account at all the logic of its goals may not be reconcilable with human needs the ai’s power might lie in making humans its servants rather than vice versa if it were to succeed in this it would rule without competition under a dictatorship of one there is a need to transition to more democratic forms of political decision-making it cannot be assumed that ai will not work to strengthen the power of those who control it elon musk warned that the global race towards ai could result in a third world war to avoid the worst mistake in history it is necessary to understand the nature of an ai race as well as escape the development that could lead to unfriendly artificial superintelligence researchers in the field who believe that asis will be friendly want to help creating an environment that will make it possible for the asis to be positive many experts however suggested limiting the power of asis to determine whether it would be acceptable to limit the power of an asi it is important to understand what it means to limit a superintelligence it could keep any ai system permanently at a human level of cognition to limit the super intelligence is not to try to make the superintelligence less capable it means the superintelligence stays below a certain level of capability permanently machine intelligence is the last invention that humanity will ever need to make the machines will then be better at inventing than we are

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and they’ll be doing so on digital time scales now a super intelligence with such technological maturity would be extremely powerful and at least in some scenarios it would be able to get what it was we would then have a future that would be shaped by the preferences of this ai there are several technological capabilities that could form the basic elements of a workable asi the cognitive element to the ai will be much like our own brains these elements would not only have the ability to learn and comprehend but also the memory to store all of that knowledge the ability to think could include morality ethics rational thought artistic creation scientific experimentation and especially the ability to work with logic another important element is the ability of human-like emotional responses reason and to communicate in terms meaningful for human beings whoever succeeds in creating the first super-intelligent entity they need to make sure that this new type of intelligence is democratized understands people and is able to communicate with them in some way bostrom argues that we might make a mistake and give this new entity goals that lead it to annihilate humankind assuming its enormous intellectual advantage gives it the power to do so the way to avoid this mistake is to create an open system and help it develop artificial intelligence is undoubtedly the future and the possibility to create a friendly asi is important as it will have a serious effect on our future to ensure the friendly nature of artificial super intelligence world leaders should work to ensure that this asi is beneficial to the entire humanity in addition it is important to test all logical goals before development of such ai the ai programming would have to be open to access and limited to only positive uses such as curing diseases or producing resources thanks for watching did you like this video then show your support by subscribing ringing the bell and enabling notifications to never miss videos like this [Music] you

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